The massive tax and budget bill President Trump signed into law this month could prove a major challenge for Republicans in the 2026 midterm elections — but probably not in the places that will be hurt the most by it.

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act will increase interest rates and harm the longer-term growth prospects of the economy.

The bill will extend tax cuts passed under President Donald Trump’s first term, cut funding to social programs like Medicaid and add an estimated $3 trillion to the national debt.