Global investors may be underpricing the impact of a conflict between Israel and Iran, market watchers warned on Monday, as stocks rallied despite escalating warfare in the Middle East. The two regional powers continued trading fire on Monday, marking the fourth consecutive day of fighting since Israel launched airstrikes against Iran last week.

The initial round of Israeli attacks sent oil prices 7 percent higher on Friday. Still, at about $74 a barrel, Brent crude remains below the $80 average for 2024, the Deutsche Bank analysts wrote. The market continued to waver, though, and by Monday, oil prices had fallen about 3 percent.

Following a robust 10 per cent rally in the Nifty since the tariff pause announcement on April 9, 2025, Emkay expects markets to pause.

If Iran’s crude oil supply gets disrupted by 0.5 to 1 million barrels per day, it could lead to global crude oil prices surging by 5 to 10 dollars per barrel in the medium term.

Israel and Iran continue to fire a volley of missiles and drones at one another, targeting energy infrastructure as well as residential areas. The conflict, which has killed over 220 people so far since Friday (June 13),

Tensions between Israel and Iran have raised fears of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global oil and LNG. Experts warn that even the threat of closure could rattle markets and push energy prices sharply higher.

Paint manufacturers such as Asian Paints, Berger Paints, and Kansai Nerolac source around 50% of their raw materials from crude-based derivatives like resins and solvents. These input costs are highly sensitive to crude fluctuations.

Investors struck a cautious tone on Monday, as an escalating conflict between Israel and Iran pushed oil prices higher and raised wider questions about the long-term impact.