Hurricane Erick was upgraded to a Category 2 Storm Wednesday, and is expected to cause major damage on the Southern Coast of Mexico.

Forming in October, Otis grew stronger by churning up deeper and warmer water because it was later in the year. Erick is early in the year and the deep water it would churn up is cooler and doesn’t fuel rapid intensification. Even so, the surface water is plenty hot enough, said MIT hurricane scientist Kerry Emanuel.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center says Hurricane Erick has strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane and could reach major hurricane strength before landfall.